Into the Opening

I meant to post a list of those who were in danger of being sent to the minors for opening day, but that would be sort of useless now that the roster has been trimmed.

One send down was the obvious one, a man by the name of Humberto Quintero. It is arguable that he should be on the opening day roster, but we simply haven't seen enough of him and we trust our two guys. He does, however, have a chance to start next year, as Ausmus is not getting any younger, and Humberto apparantly is much like Brad in his strengths. If he can find some almighty power to give him some offense, that would simply be awesome.

Another send down is a guy who missed the ML cut at the same time last year: Mike Gallo. He apparantly wasn't as dissappointed, but I am sure he wanted to be on the 25 man, and he probably deservd it more so than Chad Harville. However, and Garner alluded to this too, you would be a fool to bet thta he won't play Major League ball this year.

Finally, there was Ezequial Astacio. He is a bit diferent from the other two send downs, however. He still has a chance to make the starting rotation. He will make two starts in AAA Round Rock before the 'Stros need a 5th starter. While I am ot sure if he will make the rotation when we first need a 5th, I would bet tnhat he'll make his share of starts this eason...

And these are just those that did not make it. There are still questions to be answered. Out of Luke Scott, Willy Taveras, and Chris Burke, one will not be starting opening day. Then it is quite likely that yet another will be out of the daily starting play when Lance Berkman returns. It seems as if Burke might not start opening day, and it is questionable if the Astros would see it fit for him to start over Taveras or Scott before Berkman gets back. Nevertheless, four of ESPN's "experts", including Eric Neel, have predicted Chris to win the National League's rookie of the year award. That would mean that both Scott and Taveras would hvae to be minor league send downs or bench players once Berkman gets back. Another ESPN expert, however, the great Peter Gammons, has predicted Luke Scott to win the Rookie of the Year award. That would cross out Chris Burke from the regular playing time.

So, there are still questions; as is obvious. However, there are still at least some questions with everyone else. To end this article off, I will continue with the Houston Chronicle's Poker theme: The cards have been dealt; and now it is time to place bets and play out the hand.

I'm back!!!

I must apologize for my long absense. Life became involved, and it tore me away from Home Plate in Space. Yet, with a recent email that I am assuming was from a fan, I have been persuaded to launch off from the baseball NASA once again, and I have returned.

In other personal news, I have accepted a writing position for Most Valuable Network on their Heads/Tails site. Soon I will be posting at Heads/Tails at least once a week with argumentation about events and issues going on in sports.

Anyways, now to the Astros. Lots has happened since I last posted...

• Everyone else who was scheduled for arbitration got set up with a contract. That was good.
• Spring Training started. That was big.
• Pete Munro got cut. The move was slightly surprising, but I guess it was a nice guester to Pete if he wasn't going to make the team. I won't be surprised to see him back in a couple of years, though.
• Lots of people were demoted. None of these were really surprises, though.
• Battles for a spot on the 25 man roster have been great! Seeing as there were only 5 position jobs guaranteed and 5 pitching jobs guaranteed, combined with 1 more starting job unknown(Biggio), there has been some great playing! Camp started with at least 14 spots up for grabs, and most of them have yet to be decided. More on this later.
  
• Lance Berkman was resigned! Yay! I would write up a convincing argument about the subject, but Lisa Gray has already done so.
• Luke Scott exploded! More on this later.
• Brad Ausmus has done very well with yet another swing.
• Bagwell has had trouble in games implementing his new swing.
  
• Finally, and most recently, Tim Redding was traded for a minor league catcher that I have never heard of, which I guess is better than releasing the guy, since he wasn't going to make the 25 man.

Now, without further adu, I am going to present what I believe should be the opening day 25 man roster, complete with a starting lineup and rotation, as well as who our set up men should be.

First, the starting lineup.

1: Craig Biggio, LF
2: Chris Burke, 2b
3: Jeff Bagwell, 1b
4: Morgan Ensberg, 3b
5: Jason Lane, RF
6: Adam Everett, SS
7: Brad Ausmus, C
8: Luke Scott, CF
9: Pitcher

Bench:
Mike Lamb, 3b/1b/OF
Jose Vizcaino, IF
Orlando Palmeiro, OF
Eric Bruntlett, IF

Readers may wonder where Willy Taveras is. The fact of the matter is, in Spring Training, while you might face major league pitchers, you will also face pitchers as low as in A-ball. Willy Taveras has only had one at bat above AA ball, and that was a strikeout in the majors. I do understand that Luke Scott hasn't hit ANYTHING above AA, but he played winterball and also got help from the great Tony Gwynn over the offseason. Besides, Scott is tearing everything up in spring training, including the expierienced pitchers. On another note, at least Chris Burke has faced pitchers in AAA, and he did quite well against them. Taveras is only 23, and he has time to develop his hitting in AAA before coming to the majors. Scott is 26, so he's a bit old to be considered a prospect with a lot of time to progress. When Berkman gets back Scott can be an excellent bench guy, with Bruntlett or a pitcher going to AAA.


Alright, now on to pitching.

The rotation I want:
1: Roy Oswalt
2: Andy Pettitte(please get healthy!)
3: Roger Clemens
4: Brandon Backe
5: Brandon Duckworth (yet not guaranteed)*

Bullpen:
Closer: Brad Lidge
Lefthanded Specialist: Mr. Franco
Set up man: Chad Qualls
Rest of the pack: Russ Springer, Dan Wheeler, Dave Burba, Chad Harville

The more pitching options there are, the better off our bullpen is. Duckworth is guaranteed a spot on the roster, and he has done well this spring. I know Burba and Harville have bad statistics, but apparantly they have pitched well too. Burba is also expierienced, which is good.

Due to lucky scheduling, the rotation can go two rounds before needing a 5th starter. Ezequial Astacio also has never played above AA ball, like many hitters. I think he can do better for the organization by becoming better in AAA than being in the bullpen. He should get two starts in AAA, and if he does real well in those two starts, he can be called up to the majors with Harville being sent down in order to be the 5th starter.


For those who don't know the Astros' organization, what I have presented looks bleak. However, for us fans; the chances are as good as any. Houston has a problem, but so does everyone else in the NL Central.

Finally; Agreements

About to embark on an arbitration case for the first time sense Daryl Kyle in 1997, the Houston Astros and Tim Purpura finally came to an agreement with Tim Redding. It was about time Tim Purpura got something somewhat done. Even with a 700,00 dollar contract (significantly more than what the Astros offered for the case) , an agreement is better than the lpayer getting hard feelings. The Astros also came to a 700,000 dollar agreement with Peter Munro, a fellow contender for the rotation with Tim Redding.

It seems as if Tim Purpura might be learning something, but it is uan unsure thing, and it would be happening slowly. Here is a lesson for thim: it is not what he thinks what matters in contract negociation; it is theopinion of the player. I know this simply from negociations in player sim leagues, with fake money and real people controlling imaginary people.

This all is somethin he has not seemed to grasp quite yet. It took way too long to negociate with Redding, and the negociations with Oswalt aren't going well, either. That is what Roy and his agent say, that is. Tim says they are going well; but that doesn't matter. Roy-O has said he is annoyed, and that certainly is not a good thing. Timmy needs to pony up and make Oswalt happy; since we want him here for the long term.

He has not learned his lesson yet, and it seems by the time he does it might have to be by form of the really really hard way. Berkman was annoyed too when we were offering Beltran a lot more money than we were to him, and we weren't even talking to him for a period of time. If we don't treat our players right, they are probably going to go. When that happens, we will be rebuilding agin And when that happens, Purpura will either have to get his act seriously together, or he will be canned.

Make themhappy, Tim: that is part of your job.

The race for #5

The race for the #5 pitcher in the Astros' rotation next year started yesterday when Nolan Ryan and other staff members of the team's organization started the team's voluntary pitching camp.

The early front runner for the rotation job is Carlos Hernandez, but he didn't show up. The other top contenders did come, however: Tim Redding and Brandon Duckworth. Ezequiel Astacio, who Baseball America rated as the Astros' number 2 prospect behind Chris Burke, came as well.

The camp lasts until friday, and I'm sure all three mentioned above hope that they will gain some knowledge to help the game a spot on the team. The others who showed up, including Troy Pratton(the team's top lefthanded pitching prospect).

I have no clue what Brandon Duckworth needs to do to make it to the rotation, but I do know Tim Redding has the stuff. If this learning with Nolan Ryan can get him to master his control(ha! what's the likelihood of that?), than he will easily beat Carlos for the rotation spot. As I sort of pointed to though, it is a huge "if".

Now for Ezequiel Astacio. Us fans don't yet know much of him, so I have garnered some information, and here is what I found:
-Baseball America said that out of all of our prospects in our organization, he has the best fastball and best control.
-Jim Callis, a Baseball America editor, projects Astacio as a number 3 starter in the future and possibly a number 2 starter.
-He had a 3.89 ERA in AA Round Rock with a 13-10 record last year.
-Last year, he had 9.5 strikeouts per 9 innings.
-In his minor league career he has an ERA of 3.31 with a record of 54-34.
-He is 25 years old, which isn't that great for a AA prospect.
The Home Plate in Space Verdict: As it was AA that he showed his might in, he still has a lot of improving to do to make the major league team; just like Willy Taveras. We don't know if Willy Taveras can yet hit major league pitchers, and we don't know if Mr. Astacio will be able to come anywhere close to dominating major leaguers in 2005. He will likely be in the top of the rotation with Taylor Buscholz in AAA, and if he proves to be better than Buscholz in AAA, he will recieve a call up if an injury comes in the rotation or our #5 guy just doesn't work out; or something like that. Even if not, he will probably be on the major league team when the roster expands to 40 guys.



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Another interesting note: Apparantly in the Baseball America chat about the Astros' organization with Jim Callis, Tim Purpura asked a question. Here is the exact quote from the transcript:

Q:
Tim Purpura from Houston asks:Should I give Willy Taveras a shot at starting this year (considering his potential to win several Gold Gloves)? Will Zeke Astacio be a front of the rotation starter down the line, and how does his ceiling compare with previous guys such as Oswalt during this stage in their career?

A:
Jim Callis: Defensively, Taveras would be Houston's best center field
option for 2005, but he's not ready to contribute offensively. Astacio's stuff
went from pedestrian to good in the course of one year, and if that's for real
he could possibly be a No. 2 starter. Realistically, he's a No. 3. He's also 25,
and at that age Oswalt had three major league seasons under his belt. I wouldn't
compare Astacio to Oswalt.

Whether or not that was really Tim Purpura we will never know. However, if it was: I wonder how he will take Jim's answer. I don't mind Taveras being given a shot to start in center if Berkman isn't ready for opening day, but unless Taveras becomes a significant addition in the lineup against major league pitching immediatly, he should be sent back to AAA when Lance is ready to play again. However I doubt this is really the 'Stros' GM, because I don't think anyone that smart would compare a 25 year old guy in AA-ball to Roy Oswalt.

I must Apologize

I must apologize for eing extremely inactive in my posting the past week. I was going to write something on Roger Clemens, but then I never got around to it because I have been so extremely busy. Anyways, just to let everyone know: Clemens was not overpayed. He made about 7 million dollars last year. That combined with this 18 million is an average of about 12 million dollars per year, which isn't bad, especially when he wins a Cy Young for your team and help teaches the young pitchers.

The John Franco signing sucked, too. I know he has a 0 career ERA in Minute Maid Park and that he was once a team captain of a team in New York, but he is 44 years old and clearly declining. 700 thousand dollars? Lets hope he becomes great as a teacher.

Meanwhile when the Astros did good by avoiding arbitration with Lance Berkman, if you include his bonuses he is making more money this year than he asked. O well, at least we made him happy. We better get a long term contract signed though, cuz he said he won't be talking during the season.

That, for short, is about it for now. I must, unfortunatly, leave right now. I'll be back Sunday if all goes well. Go Stros!

Hopefully these Big Money Numbers lead to Big Agreements

Roger Clemens filed for 22 million dollars, a record among all arbitration files of past. The Astros offered through arbitration 13.5 million dollars. That all lead to an 8.5 million dollar difference between arbitration offers, another record. And these arbitration people are supposed to, starting on Febuary the 1st, attempt to decide which offer is more fair. They shouldn't even try, though, because Roger Clemens probably won't accept an Arbitration contract, since it won't give him any perks such as not having to go on road trips he won't pitch in.

At any rate, GM Tim Purpura said if Clemens decides to come back negociations will start at another record number, 17.5 million dollars. That is the record salary for a pitcher, set by Pedro Martinez last year. Hopefully an agreement can be reached and the Rocket will return for one last season.

Meanwhile, all of the Astros' other four arbitration eligable candidates asked for more than one million dollars. The most was Lance Berkman, who asked for 11 million dollars, one million more than the Astros' offer of ten million. Lance is optimistic that since both numbers are so close a deal can be reached. Hopefully an extension comes with that deal too, because otherwise we might lose him.

Roy Oswalt asked for 7.8 million dollars, while Purpura's crew offered 6. I think the 7.8 is the much fairer number, but an agreement would of course be ideal to avoid hard feelings. An extension isn't neccissary yet, but would be nice with Oswalt too.

Pete Munro asked for 1.1 million dollars and Tim Redding asked for 1.4. Munro was offered 525 thousand dollars and Redding was offered 50 grand more. These are the less significant ones, of course. And, obviously, an agreement would be nice to avoid hard feelings, but both pitchers don't deserve much yet and these might have to go to the panel.

At any rate, even if the Astros' Roster next year won't show any new faces to the organization, Tim Purpura has some work to do, and still a lot of it.

Duckworth Re-signed

Arbitration was once again avoided with Brandon Duckworth agreed to a reasonably cheap one year, 500k contract.

Maybe he will try and have a good season so he can get a lot more next year.